“China is primarily focused on maintaining the pace of its own economic growth”
In an interview with LogiStan, Ivan Zuenko, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry, emphasized that maintaining the pace of its economic growth remains a key priority for China. According to him, the current economic downturn is temporary and will be followed by growth, which will also be supported by resources from Central Asia.
— How are China's plans in Central Asia changing? — the interlocutor asks.
— China's strategic plans remain unchanged. Cooperation between the PRC and Central Asia shows positive dynamics, trade volumes are increasing, and planned projects are being completed on time. Since the beginning of 2022, Central Asian countries have begun to develop cooperation with China more actively, which is related to their wariness towards Russia, — Zuenko replies.
— But hasn’t China abandoned some projects in Central Asia, including the relocation of enterprises and the construction of agro-industrial complexes?
— At the moment, China has not officially canceled any of these projects, — the expert asserts.
— Although deadlines for some of them have already been missed. How do you comment on this?
— I believe that deadlines for the implementation of Chinese economic projects should be approached philosophically. This will help to better understand the specifics of both Russian-Chinese projects and Chinese initiatives in Central Asia. Even if China decides to abandon some plans, it is unlikely to do so publicly, as this would create unnecessary tension.
Zuenko also noted that Chinese investors usually do not announce refusals, and such projects simply disappear from sight.
Investment policy of China in Central Asia: priorities and limitations
— Have you noticed changes in China's approaches to investments in the region?
— In my opinion, there are no changes. China remains actively interested in the extraction and transportation of energy resources, which aligns with its strategic interests in Central Asia.
It is important for China's partners to understand this. In March 2026, I will publish an article in the journal "Russia in Global Politics," where I will elaborate on this issue.
At the same time, there is an interesting feature: the Chinese, avoiding direct refusals, often respond vaguely to less interesting proposals. They may say that they are interested in everything, but this does not always lead to real steps.
— Are there areas where China will never invest, despite its flexibility?
— Investments in casinos are certainly a "red line" for China. In other cases, if there is an opportunity to make a profit, they will invest.
— Is the opening of production facilities in other countries considered an investment?
— Yes, but only if it will bring significant benefits. For China, this may mean not only high profits but also reduced costs, for example, for transportation or job creation.
A key point for all of China's partners remains its desire to maintain its own economic growth. Although some projects are currently slowing down, this is temporary. Growth will follow the downturn, and China will ensure it, including through resources from Central Asia.
Assessment of Chinese projects and learning from mistakes
— Has China conducted an audit of its projects in Central Asia?
— Yes, this was done almost ten years ago after the stock market crash. In 2015-2016, China realized that a significant portion of investments was ineffective, leading to a reduction in funding flows, especially through state funds. Since then, China has become much more selective in choosing projects for investment.
— When might China reconsider its approaches to Central Asia again?
— China does not categorize Central Asia separately. This region is viewed as close neighbors, along with Southeast and East Asia, Russia, and South Asia. Interaction with other regions, such as Africa, Latin America, and Europe, is built on different principles.
China's foreign policy logic remains similar across different countries. It seeks to establish relations with specific states while avoiding interference in internal affairs.
— Which factor carries more weight in implementing projects in Central Asia — political or economic?
— Economic. Unlike the West, China does not interfere in internal affairs, preferring to work with those who control the situation in the country.
China is ready to cooperate with both secular governments and Islamists if they come to power, demonstrating its pragmatic approach.
— China is probably surprised by the instability in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan?
— Yes, this indeed causes them concern.
Exaggerated fears of China
— Some experts, such as Alexey Bezborodov, believe that China may change the rules of the game in the logistics market of Central Asia and Russia. Is this true?
— I respect Bezborodov as an expert in logistics, but the situation requires a broader perspective. All market participants, including Russia and China, are subject to the laws of competition. A new player offering better services always wins.
Russian road carriers are sometimes more competitive than Central Asian ones. In rail transport, natural monopolies operate, such as Russian Railways in Russia and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy in Kazakhstan.
China, as a neighbor, can use our transport routes, but it will not be able to acquire strategic assets such as ports or railways due to restrictions on foreign investments.
A complete takeover of the Russian logistics market by China is impossible, and the same applies to Central Asia.
However, it is impossible to exclude China's presence in logistics or the economy as a whole. China knows the rules of the game and will use its competitive advantages.
— Should Central Asia be afraid of China?
— No one should be afraid of anyone. However, "not being afraid" does not mean openly inviting everyone. Each country should protect its economic interests, regardless of its strength.
— How can we best interact with China, considering strengths and weaknesses?
— It is important to assess how exclusive and important China's offer is for us. China offers access to a large market and quality services. But at the same time, it is necessary to consider how this aligns with our national interests, which should be paramount. China also adheres to this approach.
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