The new leader, Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi, can be considered the initiator of jihad against the U.S. and Israel.
Additionally, remnants of the protest movement that began in late 2025 due to economic discontent and evolved into political demands continue to exist in Iran.
At present, airports in the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other countries have already canceled numerous flights. There have also been issues with tanker movement in the Strait of Hormuz, through which oil supplies from the region are transported.
How the described situation in the Middle East may affect the global environment, neighboring countries, and Kyrgyzstan, Kaktus.media discussed with experts.
Almaz Tajibay, Political Scientist
- The current situation affects not only Iran's neighbors but also global processes reflected in stock markets. Oil prices are expected to rise as the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran.There are three scenarios for the further development of events.
The first: if the current Iranian authorities do not reach an agreement with the U.S. to cease work on the nuclear program, the situation may escalate quickly. One could also assume a scenario similar to Venezuela, where supporters of the Ayatollah (about 20%) will be able to continue to exist.
The second scenario: if the Iranian authorities refuse negotiations, this could lead to a protracted war similar to the Iraqi one. But no one desires such an outcome.
The number of refugees and displaced persons will increase, which will affect neighboring countries; a civil war may possibly begin. This will have a significant impact on Turkey, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan, which are in close proximity.
As for regional influence, Afghanistan may attempt to attack Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, as a member of the CSTO, will be forced to send troops there.
From an economic standpoint, Kyrgyzstan is already facing problems in air travel and pressure on small and medium-sized businesses that purchase goods from Middle Eastern countries.
It is necessary to consider how many people are stranded in the UAE and other nearby countries.
Furthermore, pilgrims from Kyrgyzstan may find themselves in a difficult situation in Saudi Arabia.
In my opinion, the optimal scenario would be for Iran to abandon the theocratic power. But, unfortunately, the real scenario may resemble that of Venezuela.
Sheradil Baktygulov, Political Scientist:
- The volume of trade between Kyrgyzstan and Iran reached $80 million last year, indicating a steady growth. Kyrgyzstan exported legumes and nuts to Iran while importing paints, construction materials, and some food products. However, we do not have many offers for Iran, and relations are limited to a minimal level. For businesses, these are significant volumes, but for the economy of Kyrgyzstan, where budget revenues exceed 1 trillion soms, this is not a critical amount. There will be no significant upheavals. The products we import from Iran can be replaced by goods from Uzbekistan, Russia, or China. However, redirecting trade flows will take time.Nevertheless, Iran has attacked the Gulf countries where American bases are located, such as the UAE and Kuwait, with which Kyrgyzstan also has trade ties. Money transfers from Kyrgyz citizens working there come from these countries. For example, about 10,000 citizens of Kyrgyzstan work in the UAE, and about 1,000 in Kuwait, not to mention those who are unregistered...
Overall losses will increase, and a more thorough assessment is necessary. Significant reductions in supplies from other countries should be expected.Fuel and gas for Kyrgyzstan come from Russia and Uzbekistan, so there will be no losses in this area. However, supplies of flowers and gadgets from the UAE may become problematic.
Economic difficulties will be temporary, but there is a risk that local entrepreneurs will start to inflate prices, citing the conflict. This could lead to speculative price increases on certain goods. Another issue is the insufficient diversification of supplies, which may lead to markups to cover losses. All of this may coincide with the traditional price increases, ultimately affecting inflation.
From a political standpoint, cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Iran is not strong; it can be characterized as sluggish. High-level political visits are absent, and everything is limited to formal congratulations and exchanges of opinions.
However, it is important to remember that during the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Turkic states were almost ready to boycott Tajikistan, and Iran then stated that the security of Tajikistan is the security of Iran. This statement remains in the memory of Kyrgyz citizens. The positions of neighbors—Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which expressed support for Arab countries—must also be taken into account.
Connections in the educational and humanitarian spheres between our countries are quite weak. Only 30-40 students study Persian in Kyrgyzstan, and in Iran, there are probably no more than a hundred Kyrgyz citizens, mostly women married to Iranians.
It is important that statements regarding Iran will be closely monitored by the U.S., Israel, and Europe. We cannot compare in significance with countries like Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, but it is worth recognizing the importance of what we say regarding this situation.
