Dubnov noted that it has become evident that the ruling tandem has lost its relevance and is no longer capable of maintaining stability in the country. "On the other hand, it is not surprising that it could not exist forever. An acquaintance who is well-informed about the political situation in Bishkek told me that 'it's a miracle that this tandem lasted five years.' It is hard to disagree with this, especially considering that Tashiev's ambitions made him 'the number one person' in Kyrgyzstan for many," he added.
He also pointed out Tashiev's achievements: "He successfully resolved border disputes with Tajikistan, ordered the execution of Kamchi Kolbaev, a notorious criminal, and even renamed his native Jalal-Abad to Manas in honor of the hero of the Kyrgyz epic, while punishing the mayor of Manas for incorrect decisions."
Dubnov posed several questions: "How will the now former second person in the country react to the actions of the first? Will he return from Germany? Will he participate in the presidential elections scheduled for January 24, 2027? How will his return to Kyrgyzstan affect him?"
"There is an opinion that former KGB officers never disappear, and therefore any events are possible. Kyrgyz people, especially from the south, easily rise to defend their own. However, the elder of Kyrgyz politics, Felix Kulov, noted in an interview with Vesti.kg that Tashiev's future will depend solely on his decisions. If he does not come into conflict with the authorities, then talks of arrest have no basis," the expert emphasized.
Dubnov also added that none of the five presidents of Kyrgyzstan, except for the interim president Roza Otunbayeva, left their positions voluntarily and on time. "Whether this trend will be overcome remains an open question," he concluded.
For reference, on February 10, a decree was published by the president of the Kyrgyz Republic regarding the early termination of Kamchybek Tashiev's powers. President Sadyr Japarov explained his decision as necessary for strengthening state unity and preventing a split in society.
