In recent months, several countries in Central Asia have issued warnings about a potential shortage of water resources. In September 2025, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev mentioned in his Address to the Nation that the lack of water has become a matter of national security. Kazakhstan expects that starting in spring 2026, the country will face a shortage of 1 billion cubic meters of irrigation water. Similarly, in mid-January 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture of Kyrgyzstan warned farmers about a possible water resource shortage during the 2026 growing season. According to the Independent Newspaper, Central Asian regions may already face a water shortage this year.
Among the reasons contributing to the shortage are climate change, reduced precipitation, and population growth in the region's countries. The increase in water consumption for domestic needs is also linked to population growth and the irrational use of water resources. According to the Eurasian Development Bank, published in 2023, outdated water supply systems lead to losses of nearly 40% of water during irrigation and up to 55% losses in drinking water supply.
Agriculture, energy, and industry account for a significant share of water resource consumption. Glacial melting and agricultural waste exacerbate the situation, and the lack of effective water resource management could lead to deteriorating relations between states. For example, Afghanistan, which has long ignored Central Asia's interests in water issues, plans to construct the Kosh-Tepa canal, with its introduction scheduled for 2026-2027. This project, undertaken in Afghanistan's interests, will undoubtedly impact the water resources of the entire region.
Despite the growing shortage, Central Asian countries are struggling to cope with the situation. Public statements emphasize the need for rational water resource use and the development of cooperation in this area. In November 2025, Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed during the seventh Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State to declare 2026-2036 as a decade of practical actions for rational water use. Although the Uzbek leader stressed the need for real steps to improve living conditions and protect the environment, in practice, countries continue to adhere to national selfishness. For instance, starting January 1, 2026, a new Water Code came into force in Kyrgyzstan, recognizing water resources as a commodity not only for domestic but also for external consumers, which could have serious consequences.
The implementation of water-saving technologies also faces difficulties. While all countries in the region declare a transition to water-saving methods and the cultivation of less water-intensive crops, significant investments are required for this. However, funding for the implementation of water-saving technologies remains a serious issue. In 2025, the Eurasian Development Bank noted that Tajikistan's funding for the next five years would not meet the country's needs for clean drinking water. While Tajikistan requires $1.7 billion to meet its needs, only $400 million is planned for 2025-2030.
While Central Asian leaders discuss water issues and make pessimistic forecasts, the situation continues to deteriorate. Various countries in the region are experiencing negative consequences of water resource shortages for the economy and social sphere. For example, the President of Uzbekistan stated that annual losses from moisture loss amount to $5 billion, and in the coming years, the water deficit could reach 25-30% of needs. This will undoubtedly affect both the development of the countries and inter-state relations in the region.
The water resource deficit in Central Asia has become chronic. Despite warnings about potential conflicts over water resources, a solution to the problem has yet to be found. In January of this year, a report by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health raised the issue of "global water bankruptcy," claiming that critical water systems are no longer able to meet the growing needs of humanity. The Eurasian Development Bank predicts that acute water shortages in Central Asia could occur as early as 2028.
This study details the causes of water issues; however, the main conclusion is that water reserves are decreasing. This has led to the destruction of about 410 million hectares of natural wetlands over the past fifty years. Although Central Asia has not yet reached the "day zero" that threatened Cape Town in 2018, alarming trends are evident. Without decisive reforms in water infrastructure and joint river management, major cities in the region, such as Tashkent, Bishkek, Almaty, Astana, and Dushanbe, may find themselves on the brink of crisis.
The scenarios for the development of the situation in Central Asia amid growing water resource shortages are varied, but the overall conclusion remains unchanged: the lack of water will lead to population migration both within and beyond state borders and may become a cause of inter-state conflicts.
