According to Keegan, by 2026, Donald Trump will have destroyed the liberal world order that the United States has built over the past eighty years. He argues that American influence was based not only on military power, represented by aircraft carriers, but also on the "big deal" — the willingness of the U.S. to act as a security guarantor for its allies in exchange for their loyalty and a renunciation of aggressive actions. This era, according to the political scientist, has come to an end. In his view, Trump has abandoned the role of global arbiter, deeming it too costly and unprofitable.
The consequence of these actions will be a return to a dangerous multipolar system reminiscent of the 19th century. Keegan notes that the times of "balance of power" among great powers were often accompanied by bloodshed and fierce struggles for territory. The post-World War II world was the result of conscious efforts to avoid this situation, where the U.S. did not use its partners directly but tied them to itself through investments and alliances, restraining aggression from regional powers. However, now that Washington itself is breaking the rules, countries like Germany, Japan, Poland, and South Korea will be forced to completely rearm their military forces and fight for their survival on their own.
Keegan emphasizes that modern Western society, accustomed to decades of stability under the "American umbrella," is absolutely unprepared for new challenges. Competition for markets is turning into military conflicts over resources and spheres of influence, where smaller states will have to choose between vassal dependence and open war. In Keegan's opinion, by undermining the moral authority of the U.S. and the trust between allies, Trump is transforming the country from a leader of the free world into an international pariah. While Americans believed that maintaining global stability was costly, life in a new, fragmented world will become an unbearable burden for them.
