She noted that the global economy has demonstrated its resilience: last year, global growth was 3.2%, which aligns with preliminary forecasts for 2025 made before the introduction of trade tariffs.
“There was a moment when economists expressed concerns about a possible recession in the U.S. In the first three days, the markets reacted quite sharply, creating the impression that the system was about to collapse. However, the Trump administration effectively suspended the imposition of tariffs, stating its readiness for negotiations,” Gopinath explained.
According to her, the mildness of the consequences is related to the fact that the actual tariff rates were significantly lower than those announced.
The actual duties paid by companies when importing into the U.S. turned out to be lower than the legislated rate of 22-23%. Gopinath estimates the real rate to be around 14%.
The economist added that this is due to numerous exemptions for certain goods and countries. In some cases, tariffs were announced but later canceled, and goods that were already en route at the time of the new tariffs were also exempt from these rules.
Additionally, Gopinath noted that other factors also contributed to supporting the economy.
The first factor is active investment in artificial intelligence, which has contributed to increased wealth and maintained consumption among affluent households.
The second factor is fiscal policy, especially in China, where large-scale measures to stimulate the economy were implemented.
At the same time, Gopinath emphasized that the global economy has undergone changes.
“We are moving away from a predictable trading order based on rules. Now there is a level of uncertainty that did not exist before,” she added.
