Ishenov emphasized that oil is a raw material not only for gasoline and diesel fuel but also for a multitude of other products. "About 6,000 types of products are made from oil, including plastics, synthetic materials, fabrics, and components for various industries such as manufacturing, aviation, and space. Thus, oil is the foundation of a significant part of the global economy," he added.
According to the economist, the rise in energy resource prices affects not only Kyrgyzstan but also neighboring countries, as well as Europe and the global economy as a whole. This impacts the prices of goods, logistics, and the standard of living of the population.
It is extremely difficult to predict how long the current escalation will last, as major global and regional players are involved in the conflict, and the risk of an expansion of hostilities remains high, the professor noted.
Ishenov also pointed out that military actions negatively affect the economic situation in the world and ultimately impact people's daily lives.
He added that according to various estimates, up to 80–90% of global conflicts are somehow related to the control of energy resources.
The current tension in the Middle East, including conflicts between the USA, Israel, and Iran, also affects international markets. This is especially true for the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass.
"Any threats to close the strait immediately affect prices: even rumors about potential risks lead to an increase in oil quotes. A complete or partial blockade of the strait will inevitably cause further price hikes," he noted.
From a strategic perspective, according to Ishenov, it is important for Kyrgyzstan to strengthen ties with neighboring countries and actively participate in international associations.
"We must maintain existing connections, especially considering that we receive the majority of our gasoline from Russia. Maintaining friendly and economic relations with this country is a necessity, as events in Russia directly influence oil prices and, consequently, our economy," he emphasized.
The economist believes that successfully establishing trade under stable prices could alleviate the situation.
"However, it is impossible to predict how oil prices will fluctuate: they can rise or fall. Therefore, precautionary measures need to be taken in advance. In this regard, mechanisms already exist within the EAEU, such as simplified trade agreements and the creation of strategic reserves," he added.
In his opinion, there is currently no direct military conflict for Russia, and the situation is not comparable to the Ukrainian crisis.
"Nevertheless, countries are concerned about the possible consequences of military actions, and Russia is unlikely to achieve complete success quickly," Ishenov concluded.
He noted that any events affect the economy of both Russia and Kyrgyzstan.
"At the moment, we do not have a serious crisis, but existing reserves will only last for a short time: they may be exhausted in one to two months. Oil will not disappear completely, but its resources are limited," the professor added.
