Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping made an unexpected decision affecting the top leadership of the country's armed forces, which is part of his extensive anti-corruption campaign. According to CNN, over 100 officers may have been dismissed since 2022, indicating the broad scope of these reshuffles.
A new report from a reputable analytical center in Washington highlights how far the anti-corruption initiative within military structures has progressed and how it may affect Xi Jinping's stability in power.
According to the report presented on Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 36 generals and lieutenant generals have been dismissed since 2022, while 65 officers are listed as missing or presumed dismissed.
This large-scale purge is part of Xi Jinping's long-term strategy aimed at strengthening control over the Chinese armed forces and implementing an ambitious military modernization program.
However, the authors of the report emphasize that such an "unprecedented purge" in the army raises concerns about the readiness of the PLA to carry out complex operations.
When considering positions that have undergone purges multiple times, 52% of the 176 senior positions in the PLA have been affected by these changes.
M. Taylor Fravel, director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the report's authors, noted that these figures are "stunning and extraordinary," reflecting the scale of Xi Jinping's campaign and significant changes in the PLA's top leadership.
Not just the top leadership
Since coming to power over a decade ago, Xi Jinping has made fighting corruption in the military a priority. However, recent purges have even affected those who were close to him and appointed by him to key positions.
In official statements regarding the dismissed officers, accusations of corruption or disciplinary violations are usually mentioned; however, determining the true reasons for these purges within the opaque structure of the PLA is a challenging task.
While media attention has focused on investigations into high-ranking generals such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, the report indicates that the purges also affect lower-ranking officers, which may lead to the necessity of appointing less experienced commanders with insufficient combat experience.
This situation could negatively impact the scale of potential military operations of the PLA.
The list of officers vying for the position of commander of one of the five theaters of operations demonstrates a personnel shortage: after the dismissal of 56 deputy commanders, the number of candidates has decreased by more than a third.
According to Bonnie Lin, one of the report's authors, the purges may already be affecting the PLA's combat readiness.
She points out that PLA exercises around Taiwan in 2025 took significantly longer compared to 2024, which may be a sign of declining operational readiness.
The Taiwan issue
The report also questions the PLA's ability to carry out a complex and risky invasion of Taiwan in the coming years, especially considering the measures being taken by the U.S. and Japan to counter this scenario.
The Communist Party of China views Taiwan as its territory and does not rule out the possibility of seizing it by force.
According to John Calvelli, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Xi Jinping's distrust of his army could be leveraged by the U.S. and Taiwan in their interests to prevent a possible invasion.
However, the authors of the report warn that the PLA continues to maintain significant influence and power.
In the context of the Taiwan situation, less complex operations, such as a blockade, could be implemented much more easily.
"If Taiwan or the U.S. crosses the red line in the use of military force, China will have many options for retaliation that do not require high command coordination," Calvelli noted.
CSIS analyst Thomas Christensen argues that China still possesses capabilities to attack Taiwan, which could create serious problems for the U.S.
However, Christensen advises Xi Jinping to be cautious even in less complex situations, considering whether he will receive honest recommendations from his subordinates.
New commanders may hesitate to report bad news, fearing they might meet the same fate as their predecessors, which, as the report indicates, could complicate crisis management and create a false sense of confidence in Xi Jinping regarding the army's capabilities.
Despite the purges, experts note that Xi Jinping considers the current time appropriate for establishing order, especially given that the American leader's attention is focused on other security issues.
While the purges raise questions about the PLA's short-term combat readiness, some experts caution against underestimating China in the long term, especially by the end of the decade when newly appointed officers will gain experience and possibly become more confident in their actions.
As they train and interact with Xi Jinping, this may enhance their confidence and expectations of success, believes report author Joel Wuthnow, a senior fellow at the National Defense University.
