While the world outside Germany is rapidly changing, Germany itself is also following this trend. Bavaria, in particular, is becoming a key center for defense technologies, focusing on artificial intelligence and drones.
Many locals, like most Europeans, feel an increasing vulnerability, caught between expansionist Russia and aggressive China to the east, and unpredictable United States to the west.
According to a recent Eurobarometer survey, more than two-thirds of Europeans (68%) believe that their countries are under threat.
This autumn, the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance in Germany announced for the first time since the Cold War that war is no longer "unlikely." In addition, the agency recommended that citizens stockpile food for a period of three to ten days.
Germany, the largest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the cessation of direct support from the United States, is also seeking to strengthen its own security, as public opinion polls indicate.
The question arises: are traditional alliances with the U.S., NATO, and the EU sufficient, or should new coalitions with countries like Australia, South Korea, and Japan be considered?
Unstable Relations
By 2029, Germany's defense budget, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, will exceed the combined budgets of the United Kingdom and France.
He stated that Germany plans to spend 150 billion euros on defense, which is an "astonishing amount."
"The United States notices and appreciates this," he noted. Donald Trump is not the first president to call on Europe to take more care of its security, but his approach has a harsher tone.
At the recent Munich Security Conference, the world's largest defense-related event, the discussion of the instability in transatlantic relations became a central theme.
Although such events may seem like empty talk, they play an important role, especially private meetings of leaders held away from the cameras.
One of the most anticipated speeches at the conference was delivered by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, representing the Trump administration.
European leaders and diplomats closely followed his speech, raising the question: why did just 30 minutes of spoken words attract such attention?
Because relations between Europe and the United States have never been so strained in the last 80 years since World War II. This is not just a temporary quarrel, but deeper issues.
Denmark in Anger
Since Trump's return to the White House, Denmark has repeatedly become a target of his criticism as he imposed high tariffs on exports and made threats regarding Greenland, shocking NATO.
At the conference, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, clearly displeased, confirmed that Trump's plans for Greenland remain "unchanged," despite ongoing negotiations between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland.
Although Trump ruled out the possibility of a military takeover of Greenland, trust among the countries of the Atlantic alliance has been undermined.
Europeans perceive Trump as a pragmatic president using economic and military relations to achieve his goals, which became particularly evident before his reelection when he stated that the U.S. would not defend countries that do not provide for their own defense.
Nevertheless, Europe has relied on American support for security for decades, and critics argue that European countries have enjoyed generous welfare systems while Washington covered their security costs.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius noted: "We were used to strong support from the U.S. and were in a comfort zone, but that time is over. Washington was right," he said on Saturday.
The crisis surrounding Greenland and other actions of the Trump administration, including the suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine, have left deep wounds and made European countries wary of the U.S.
This created an atmosphere of tension in Munich before Rubio's speech.
In conclusion of his speech, he emphasized historical closeness: "We want Europe to be strong. The two great wars of the last century remind us that our fate will always be linked to yours."
Faithful Speech
Many European politicians in the hall applauded Rubio, feeling relieved that he did not threaten Europe as U.S. Vice President JD Vance did at last year's conference.
However, for attentive listeners, Rubio's speech reflected the core themes of the Trump administration, and many European leaders found it difficult to accept: anti-climate statements, skepticism about globalization, migration, and support for a new era of Christian civilization.
Rubio made it clear that the U.S. is not interested in maintaining the old order. They are seeking new paths that ideally should align with European values.
The U.S. proposal for partnership was conditional and did not imply compromise.
"It's a bit like the behavior of a brutal partner," noted one European diplomat who wished to remain anonymous. "He showed Europe how wonderful transatlantic relations were before, and then moved to an ultimatum: if you want everything to be good, you need to act as I dictate."
Another diplomat noted that when speaking of values, Rubio chose Slovakia and Hungary for a visit after Germany, which is a telling choice given their Euroskeptic positions.
Brussels views these countries as the most problematic in the EU, as their leaders oppose military aid to Ukraine and take a hard stance on migration.
Fragile New Relations
Rubio's softer rhetoric caused disagreements among European leaders, who recently defended Denmark in the wake of the Greenland crisis.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted that despite Rubio's softer tone, relations with the U.S. have become fragile. "Some boundaries have been crossed and it is no longer possible to go back," she said. "Europeans have undergone shock therapy."
Nevertheless, the question will arise whether some European countries will interpret Rubio's warm words as justification for slowing the pace of increasing defense spending, as many governments are already overburdened and voters prioritize issues of living costs over defense budgets.
Rachel Ellehuus, director of the RUSI think tank, noted that there is a growing divide across the continent.
Scandinavian and Baltic countries, close to Russia, as well as Germany and the Netherlands are increasing their defense spending, while Southern European countries like Spain are not planning to raise their budgets to the levels Trump demands.
Ellehuus argues that France and the UK have promised to increase their defense spending but are looking for "political retreats" to explain to voters what compromises this will require: tax increases, cuts to social benefits, or increased borrowing.
"Europeans should have started acting yesterday and focus on the main thing," she said. "They have 5-10 years to improve their defense capabilities."
At a recent NATO defense ministers' meeting in Brussels, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby reported that the priority for the U.S. is no longer Europe, but the Indo-Pacific region.
"Under President Trump, we are refocusing on protecting our home region and our interests," he said.
While the U.S. remains committed to the principle of mutual defense in NATO, Colby emphasized that their presence in Europe will be more limited and targeted.
Europe must become a partner, not a dependent entity, he insisted, calling for the creation of a new "NATO 3.0." The old model, based on the West, is no longer relevant, and the recent UN Security Council meeting confirmed the uncertainty of the future of relations between Europe and the U.S.
Marco Rubio called for a new century of Western civilization, Elbridge Colby insisted on updating NATO, and the British Prime Minister in Munich called for the restoration of the Western alliance.
Starmer's Subtle Approach
Unlike Rubio's assertive approach to national sovereignty, Sir Keir Starmer advocates for closer integration between the UK and Europe in defense to reduce rearmament costs, but emphasizes that this does not mean abandoning American relations.
Sofia Gaston, a national security expert from King's College London, noted that Starmer has managed to clearly define the UK's strategic position.
"Other allies in Europe may be more inclined to criticize Washington," she said, "but for the UK, it is strategically important to develop triangulation in transatlantic relations, which will require difficult choices," she added, pointing out that Starmer looks more confidently at this reality.
"The key point is a deep understanding of our national interests and tools of influence. This requires a more competitive approach, which has not always been natural for the UK, which has traditionally conducted its diplomacy more delicately and coherently."
In a rapidly changing world, European leaders are increasingly forming separate coalitions, aside from traditional organizations like NATO or the EU, which are often slow in their responses. These coalitions may include countries outside Europe.
For example, the Coalition of the Willing, created by the UK and France, aims to support Ukraine's sovereignty in the event of a peace agreement with Russia. The coalition meetings also involve Turkey, New Zealand, and Australia.
Canada is actively collaborating with Scandinavian and Baltic countries facing common geopolitical challenges. This cooperation aims to ensure stability and deterrence in the Baltic Sea, through the Scandinavian and Baltic states, as well as through Greenland and the Canadian Arctic.
One anonymous European politician humorously noted that Canada is "becoming increasingly European." Japan and South Korea are also increasingly seen as part of the "family of like-minded countries."
Not Just Defense
These coalitions are not limited to defense issues. French President Macron is persistently calling for the expansion of Europe's strategic autonomy, both in security and in energy, supply chains, and new technologies. At the conference, he urged Europe to "reduce risks" from external factors.
This week, the President of the European Commission acknowledged that if the EU does not move forward quickly enough, "some member states will have to act independently."
However, attempts by small groups of European countries to cooperate in creating strategic independence do not always succeed. For example, current disputes between France and Germany over the creation of a next-generation fighter jet—the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
Moreover, despite discussions about building European independence, the recent conference reminded how much Europe still relies on American support for security—from the nuclear umbrella to intelligence sharing and command structures. It also highlights Europe's lag behind the U.S. in high technology.
Nevertheless, the changes occurring in Europe, as well as closer ties beyond its borders, are not merely temporary measures during Donald Trump's presidency—these trends are likely to persist for a long time. The world seems to be moving towards great power politics, and even a slow-moving Europe must adapt to new conditions.
