“The anticipated high level of global oil reserves in the coming months creates downward pressure on oil prices,” the agency notes, adding that the average annual price may decrease from $69 in 2025 to $58 by the end of 2026.
In this report, the agency defines “global oil reserves” as the difference between demand and supply in the global market. Increased production targets from OPEC+ countries contribute to the growth of global oil reserves. Additionally, it is expected that non-OPEC+ countries, including Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, will increase their production both this year and next. This growth, combined with a slower increase in global oil demand, has already led to a decline in crude oil prices since the beginning of 2024.
“China's strategic reserves and the development of floating storage have contributed to the increase in reserves in non-OECD countries. One of the factors influencing prices has been the buildup of strategic oil reserves in China. The increase in oil supply and the drop in raw material prices have allowed China to purchase large volumes of oil to replenish its strategic reserves. This buildup has, to some extent, become an additional source of demand for oil,” the document from the ministry emphasizes.
