The military leadership document notes that Washington's actions aimed at promoting "freedom and democracy" are viewed as means to maintain American influence in the region. According to the information, the USA is ready to take military measures against countries that "fall out of their sphere of influence," including a possible attack on Vietnam if it refuses to participate in an anti-China coalition.
“Although the risk of conflict with Vietnam at this moment is low, given the aggressive nature of the USA, we must remain vigilant not to give them grounds to initiate an aggressive war against our country,” the document states, as reported by The 88 Project.
The document also mentions that the Vietnamese seas and extensive coastlines could be used by the US Navy to conduct military operations. It emphasizes that the United States may resort to using biochemical and tactical nuclear weapons in case of failure during an invasion.
According to estimates, the USA views Vietnam as a key partner in its Indo-Pacific strategy, as well as an ally in containing China. The Biden administration's strategy is described in the document as an attempt to create an economic bloc in the region oriented towards Western standards, which will serve as a market for American goods and technologies.
The document claims that the Trump administration maintained a more aggressive stance, seeking to increase military presence and expand the export capabilities of US military equipment.
In September 2023, during Joe Biden's visit to Vietnam, the countries signed an agreement on high-level bilateral relations, making the USA a "comprehensive strategic partner" of Vietnam, placing the USA on par with China, India, Russia, and South Korea.
The document highlights the duality of Vietnam's approach to the USA and expresses deep concerns about potential external threats that could provoke unrest against the communist regime, similar to "color revolutions" in other countries.
Other internal documents referenced by The 88 Project also confirm the government's concerns regarding US intentions in Vietnam.
“There is a general consensus on this issue within the government and ministries,” noted Ben Suonton, co-director of The 88 Project. “This is not just the opinion of a marginal group within the party or government.”
The current document, completed by the Ministry of Defense in August 2024, asserts that the USA and its allies are ready to employ unconventional methods of warfare and intervention, including large-scale invasions of countries that deviate from their influence.
Vietnamese analysts note a trend where Washington has actively developed military ties with Asian countries over the past three administrations—from Obama to Biden—to form a counter to China.
In 2023, Biden signed an agreement on "comprehensive strategic partnership" with Vietnam, elevating the level of bilateral relations to the highest diplomatic status, on par with China and Russia, emphasizing mutual respect.
However, the military document of 2024 emphasizes that despite the partner status, the USA seeks to impose its values related to human rights and democracy in order to change Vietnam's socialist governance.
The "US invasion plan" provides a clear insight into Vietnam's foreign policy strategy, showing that Hanoi sees Washington not as a partner but as an existential threat and does not plan to join an anti-China alliance.
Nguyen Khac Giang from the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute noted that these documents highlight internal contradictions within the Vietnamese political leadership, where the conservative faction has long harbored concerns about external threats to the regime.
“The military has never felt secure within the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the USA,” Giang added.
This tension became apparent in the public sphere in June 2024, when the American Fulbright University was accused of inciting a "color revolution" in a report by army television. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs defended the university, which has become an important symbol in the relations between the two countries.
Zakari Abouza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, noted that Vietnamese military officials remember well the war with the USA, which ended in 1975. In his opinion, while Western diplomats believe that Vietnam is more concerned about Chinese aggression, the real fear lies in the possibility of a "color revolution."
Funding cuts to the US Agency for International Development made by the Trump administration also undermined trust between the countries, disrupting important projects for cleaning contaminated areas.
“The uncertainty regarding color revolutions is very sad because it is unclear why the Communist Party is so insecure,” Abouza added, whose book on the People's Army of Vietnam was published last year.
Although there are disputes between China and Vietnam over territorial claims in the South China Sea, the documents emphasize that China is viewed more as a regional rival than as an existential threat like the USA.
“China does not pose a threat to the Communist Party of Vietnam,” Abouza asserts. “The Chinese understand that they can only pressure the Vietnamese to a certain extent, as they fear it could lead to mass protests against the regime.”
China remains Vietnam's largest trading partner, while the USA is the most important market for exports, which poses a challenge for Hanoi to balance economic interests with political risks.
“Even the most progressive leaders understand that the United States could support a 'color revolution' if the opportunity arises,” Abouza added.
Under the leadership of To Lam, who became the General Secretary of the Communist Party at the time this document was written, Vietnam strengthened ties with the USA, especially under Trump.
Last month, Lam was reappointed as General Secretary and is likely to assume the presidency, which will increase her influence in the country.
Under Lam's leadership, Trump's company began construction of a $1.5 billion golf resort and luxury real estate in Hung Yen province, and the Vietnamese leader quickly accepted Trump's invitation to join the Council of Peace, which was an unusually swift move considering the need for careful planning in diplomacy.
However, Trump's military actions against Venezuela raised new concerns among Vietnamese conservatives regarding closeness to Washington. Any US actions related to Cuba could disrupt Vietnam's strategic balance, Giang added.
“Cuba is a very sensitive country. If something serious happens there, it will be a shock to the political elite of Vietnam,” he noted.
Overall, according to Abouza, the first year of Trump's second term likely left the Vietnamese with mixed feelings, as the administration's focus was on the Western Hemisphere while the Vietnamese were questioning other events.
“The Vietnamese will be confused by the actions of the Trump administration, which downplayed the importance of human rights but was simultaneously ready to intervene in the affairs of other states,” he concluded.
