Significant changes occurred in China over the past weekend: the deputy chairman of the Central Military Commission and a member of the Communist Party's Politburo were dismissed. This event raises questions about Beijing's future plans regarding Taiwan and its rivalry with the US, as well as China's perception as a reliable player in the region. Reid STANDISH provides commentary on this topic.
On January 24, Beijing announced that General Zhang Youxia, a close ally of Xi Jinping, is under investigation. His dismissal creates a vacuum at the highest levels of the military hierarchy, which could have serious implications for power in China. Experts note that this change may cause concern among both Beijing's allies and rivals, who will closely monitor developments within the Communist Party of China.
Temur Umarov, an expert on Russia and Eurasia at the Carnegie Center in Berlin, comments: "For many years, China has cultivated an image of a country with long-term strategies, but such events raise doubts about how effectively Xi Jinping controls his environment."
REASONS AND SIGNIFICANCE OF THE CHANGES
The political system in China is characterized by opacity, making it difficult to understand the true reasons behind Zhang Youxia's dismissal. However, it is important to note that this occurred ahead of a significant summit with US President Donald Trump scheduled for April. The dismissal is also linked to political changes that precede the five-year leadership transition cycle. In 2027, Xi Jinping may seek to extend his term as the leader of the Communist Party.
The Chinese Ministry of Defense reported that Zhang Youxia is accused of "serious violations of discipline and law." Similar accusations have been made against another general, Liu Zhenli.
In a column in the military newspaper Liberation Army Daily on January 25, it is stated that both generals "betrayed the trust of the Communist Party and contributed to the emergence of corruption problems that undermine the party's authority over the army."
According to data published by the American newspaper Wall Street Journal, Zhang Youxia is accused of leaking information about China's nuclear program to the US and accepting bribes for promoting military personnel to high positions.
Some experts express doubts about the credibility of the information regarding espionage activities. Neil Thomas, a researcher at the China Analysis Center, believes that such a version seems unlikely: "Why would a general who has served for decades betray his own interests?" the scholar questions in his post on platform X.
Like Xi Jinping, Zhang Youxia is considered a "prince" — a descendant of revolutionary veterans. His father fought alongside Xi Jinping's father during the civil war that ended with the communists coming to power in 1949. Zhang also has combat experience, having participated in conflicts with Vietnam in the 1980s.
Zhang Youxia's dismissal can be seen as part of a broader purge among Chinese military personnel that has been ongoing for the past few years. Since 2023, about 20 generals have been dismissed, six of whom served in the rocket forces.
In light of recent dismissals and investigations, there is only one active officer and two members remaining in the Central Military Commission, including Xi Jinping himself.
HOW DOES THIS AFFECT CHINA'S NEIGHBORS?
The dismissal of Zhang Youxia, who was one of the most influential generals, raises questions about stability within the Chinese elite. This causes concern among regional partners, including Central Asia, who view China's political system as a symbol of stability following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Umarov notes: "The purge and the resulting sense of instability may influence decisions made in Central Asia."
Zhang Youxia actively engaged with international leaders, including visits to the US and Asian countries, from Pakistan to Vietnam. He also co-chaired the intergovernmental commission on military-technical cooperation between Russia and China, with his last visit to Russia occurring in November, when he met with the Minister of Defense.
However, Umarov believes that the general's dismissal is unlikely to affect China's security and cooperation with its neighbors.
Central Asia has developed "institutionalized" security ties over the years of cooperation with China, covering various aspects, including law enforcement and arms supplies.
IMPACT ON TAIWAN
Events in China may also reflect on the situation in Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing considers its territory.
Experts believe that Zhang Youxia's removal could impact China's military ambitions regarding Taiwan. Xi Jinping has emphasized the need to reunite the island with the mainland, even threatening force if necessary.
At the end of 2025, China conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, and Beijing regularly sends its military aircraft and ships into its airspace and waters.
Taiwan's Minister of Defense Wellington Koo stated on January 26 that "we will closely monitor changes at the highest levels of power in China and will not allow the removal of anyone to weaken our readiness for potential conflicts."
Drew Thompson, who previously served as an Asia strategist at the Pentagon and is now a lecturer at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, emphasizes that changes in Beijing could affect Taiwan and the United States, which supports the island militarily.
"For an effective deterrence strategy, it is essential that Xi Jinping is surrounded by competent military personnel who are ready to provide him with objective advice," Thompson notes in his newsletter.
According to him, Xi Jinping's consolidation of power in the Central Military Commission is associated with potential "operational risks, as he may make decisions without receiving objective opinions from competent advisors," and he emphasizes that the risk of errors in the Central Military Commission increases without Zhang Youxia.
The situation within the parties and the struggle for power in China remains tense. Zhang Youxia's dismissal undermines the unwritten rules of party hierarchy, which could provoke a coalition against Xi Jinping from other clans with their own interests.
The ten most influential communist clans in China (according to Telegram channels):
The Deng Xiaoping Clan — heir: son Deng Pufan. Despite a decline in influence, prestige remains.
The Chen Yun Clan — heir: son Chen Yuan. Controls significant financial flows.
The Ye Jianying Clan — heir: Ye Xuanlian. Has connections in military intelligence.
The Jiang Zemin Clan — heir: son Jiang Mianheng. Influences telecommunications and has overseas assets.
The Wang Zheng Clan — heir: son Wang Jun. Associated with major investment corporations.
The Yao Yilin Clan — heir: Wang Qishan. Former ally of Xi Jinping.
The Zeng Qinghong Clan — protégé of Jiang Zemin. Leader of the Shanghai faction.
The Hu Jintao Clan — support at all levels of power.
The Wen Jiabao Clan — multi-billion dollar fortune.
The Li Peng Clan — heir: daughter Li Xiaolin. Influences the energy sector.
Chinese Politics: The End of Stability — Foreign Policy.
Before the arrest of Zhang Youxia, Xi Jinping's purges followed unwritten rules:
— Politburo members were not persecuted;
— "Princes" were beyond suspicion;
— retirees remained safe.
The arrest of Zhang Youxia marked the end of these rules, signaling to the party elite that safety is no longer guaranteed.
This action demonstrates Xi Jinping's power and underscores that no one is protected from anti-corruption purges. However, such a policy may lead to a weakening of authority, as fear becomes the prevailing climate.
The system, based on the exchange of interests, begins to disintegrate, which could negatively impact stability. The principles that supported the system are now being dismantled, creating a risk of overall decline.
When the economy begins to slow down, no one wants to implement reforms or take responsibility, which can lead to stagnation.
The system may seem stable, but in reality, it is becoming increasingly fragile, contradicting Xi Jinping's goals of strengthening China's position.
In an environment of isolation among the top leadership and deteriorating understanding of reality, it will be difficult for Xi Jinping to find competent individuals willing to take responsibility. The question of who will be willing to continue working with him may become critical for his rule.
