Did Trump exchange Taiwan and Ukraine for Venezuela?

In the article by Jeykhun Ashirov, the reasons why assumptions about a conspiracy between the USA, Russia, and China after the capture of Maduro are unfounded are examined.

The capture of Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, by American special forces last Saturday became one of the boldest operations by the USA in recent decades. This swift action in Caracas shocked not only Latin America but also beyond its borders. Soon, concerns arose that the Venezuelan precedent could prompt China to seize Taiwan. Questions also emerged about a possible secret deal between Trump, Moscow, and Beijing, whereby the USA would gain the opportunity to act in the Western Hemisphere in exchange for inaction regarding Russia's actions in Ukraine and China's actions in Taiwan.

These theories are actively discussed in expert circles and on social platforms; however, upon detailed analysis, they prove to be unfounded.
China's Position

The events in Venezuela are unlikely to affect China's strategic plans regarding Taiwan. Beijing avoids military action against the island for pragmatic reasons. Xi Jinping adheres to a long-term approach, hoping for a change in the political situation in Taiwan after the 2028 elections.

The Chinese authorities continue to believe that international trends favor Beijing's goals of "national reunification." A change in strategy in response to US actions in Venezuela is unlikely—these are two completely different situations that require different approaches.

Moreover, China lacks sufficient military experience to conduct similar operations. The American action in Caracas was the result of months of careful intelligence and was carried out by well-trained forces that have experience operating in complex environments. The People's Liberation Army of China does not possess such experience.

Additionally, the situations differ fundamentally: Beijing views Taiwan as an internal issue rather than an international conflict requiring justification in the form of a US precedent.

Critique of the "Territory Exchange" Theory

The hypothesis that Trump "sold" Ukraine to Russia in exchange for Venezuela falls apart upon the first examination.

First Argument: There was no level of Russian control in Venezuela that would require US consent from Moscow for intervention. Maduro was more of a burden for the Kremlin than a valuable asset for exchange.

Second Argument: Trump's peace plan for Ukraine includes legislative security guarantees and extensive support for the country's post-war recovery, as outlined in the new US national security strategy. Ukraine is to become a resilient state, not be left to its fate.

Third Argument: Ukraine today has one of the most capable armies in the world, professional intelligence services, and a powerful military-industrial complex. This is not a country that can simply be given up as a bargaining chip.

The idea that the USA and Russia would sit down at the negotiating table to divide the world, as was done in Yalta in 1945, is also unfounded. Who would they even divide it with? With Russia, which has been unable to capture even the Donetsk region over the years of war (2014-2015, 2022-2026)?

Although the international system that emerged after World War II is facing a crisis, the current situation is not comparable to that which necessitated the Yalta agreement. The Russian Federation does not possess the power of the USSR and cannot dictate terms.

The Essence of Trump's Strategy

Previously, the "Monroe Doctrine" asserted US hegemony in Latin America, and now experts joke about the "Donro Doctrine," emphasizing its aggressive nature.

Trump has already warned Cuba and Colombia that they may be next in line. The White House noted that "those who do not comply will get what they deserve."

Trump's national security strategy emphasizes the priority of the Western Hemisphere, but this does not mean that the USA will leave Europe to Russia and the Indo-Pacific region to China.

The strategy states the exact opposite. Despite criticism from current European governments, the document clearly states: the USA will not allow hostile forces to dominate Europe. "We cannot afford to forget about Europe—this would be suicide on the way to our goals," the strategy states.

Real Events

The operation in Venezuela is not part of a global deal but reflects a new approach by the Trump administration to foreign policy, focused on spheres of influence and political realism. Washington is restoring its positions in the region, but this does not exclude its global role.

The Venezuelan operation was driven more by internal political factors than external ones. The Republican base in South Florida has long demanded tough measures against Maduro. A tough stance on Venezuela allows Trump to appear decisive on immigration, security, and drug trafficking—key issues for his electorate.

Beijing and Moscow may use the Venezuelan precedent for propaganda, portraying the USA as a country that ignores international law. However, this is unlikely to change their strategic calculations regarding Ukraine or Taiwan. Each of these conflicts has its own logic and dynamics, independent of events in distant Latin America.