The market situation before the events of February
The real estate market reached a historical peak before the February events. According to the Dubai Land Department (DLD), the total transaction volume in 2025 amounted to $187 billion, which corresponds to almost 20 annual budgets of Kyrgyzstan, with more than 215,000 transactions for the year.
In January 2026, 15,756 transactions were registered for a total of 55.18 billion dirhams, which is 43.9% more compared to January 2025. The majority of transactions were for the purchase of off-plan housing, where the buyer makes an initial payment, and the remaining funds are paid as construction progresses.
The average price per square meter was about $5,000. For comparison, in Bishkek, the average cost of an apartment ranges between $800 and $1,200 per square meter, which is 4-6 times cheaper.
The annual price growth was about 20% as of January 2026.
The price range in the market is very wide: from $2,200 per square meter in remote areas to $13,000 per square meter on the coast, depending on location, view, and housing class.
Current situation: slowdown, but not a collapse
Experts are unanimous: the market is experiencing a pause, but there are no mass sell-offs or sharp price declines.
“There is a short-term pause. Long-term investors are not panicking, and there is no price crash. All transactions from foreign investors have been suspended,” comments real estate expert Eliza Abdieva, who works in the Qatari and UAE markets.
According to her information, prices for purchasing real estate remain at the same level, however, rents are noticeably decreasing, which reduces the income of those who invested in apartments for rent:
- For hotel apartments (daily rental), rents have fallen by 40%
- For regular apartments (long-term rental), rents have decreased by 15-20%
International analysts confirm this trend. According to Allsopp & Allsopp, rental rates in some areas of Dubai have decreased by 25% over the year. This is particularly noticeable in the JVC, Arjan, Dubai Silicon Oasis, and Discovery Gardens areas, where there is the most pressure due to the emergence of new housing stock.
The situation is exacerbated by a record volume of new construction: in 2026, 120,000 new apartments and houses will enter the Dubai market, which is double the usual figures. Thus, supply is increasing while demand is slowing, putting pressure on prices.
Buyers now feel they are in a more advantageous position. If previously there were queues for apartments and bargaining was futile, now buyers are asking for and receiving discounts ranging from 2% to 7% off the listed price. This is a significant change for Dubai, where for the past three years, conditions were dictated by sellers.
At the same time, luxury real estate priced at $10 million and above, including villas and penthouses on the coast, continues to find its buyers. In January 2026, 990 transactions were concluded in this segment. Buyers in this class are wealthy individuals from around the world, who are significantly less concerned about current events.
“Recent events have not affected real estate prices,” asserts Dubai real estate specialist Ermek Takyrbashev, referring to DLD data on major transactions concluded after the February events, such as the Lumena by Omniyat project in the Business Bay area ($13.6 million) and ICD Brookfield Place Tower in the DIFC financial center ($8.2 million).
He also noted that locals are generally remaining calm: “The Emirate's air defense system is very powerful. Panic was mainly created by tourists, while locals continued to go about their business,” he added.
A more cautious viewpoint was presented by another real estate expert Valentina Salabay: “In conditions of regional tension, the primary concern is security rather than changes in price per square meter. In such moments, most investors prefer to pause transactions. Any price changes may turn out to be short-term and emotional.”
Analysts' forecasts for the future
Leading international consulting firms express cautious forecasts for 2026:
| Knight Frank | +3% (luxury housing), +1% (mass segment) |
| Cushman & Wakefield Core | +5-8% on average across the market |
| Fitch | Possible downward correction due to excess new housing |
For comparison, in 2025, price growth was 20%. Thus, the market is not showing a decline, but the slowdown is noticeable — from rapid growth to more cautious expectations.
Comparison of Qatar and the Emirates: reasons for differences
Expert Eliza Abdieva highlights key differences between the two Gulf markets:
| Qatar | ||
| Buyers | 80% — foreigners | 80-85% — locals |
| Number of brokerage firms | over 6,000 | 50-60 |
| Purchase tax | 4% | 2% |
| Reaction to external events | Strong — foreigners leave first | Weak — locals stay |
“The Emirates market is more sensitive to various events, while the Qatari market is more stable due to less dependence on foreign investors,” concludes Abdieva.
The logic is simple: when 80% of buyers are foreigners, any negative news makes them hit the “pause” button. Whereas with 80% locals, the market retains its stability.
Who is buying real estate in Dubai?
According to DLD data, in 2025, the leading countries by the number of foreign buyers were:
India — 22%
United Kingdom — 17%
China — 14%
Saudi Arabia — 11%
Russia — 9%
Russia, despite a population of over 140 million people, does not make it into the top 30 by the number of transactions per capita. Kyrgyz citizens are virtually absent from this statistics — their share is too small for separate accounting.
“The number of Kyrgyz citizens purchasing real estate in the Emirates is very small,” confirms Abdieva.
The process of buying housing in Dubai
For those who are still considering a purchase, Ermek Takyrbashev explains the process:
Required documents: only a passport, email, and phone number — no income statements.
Initial payment: 14-24% of the cost.
The remaining amount: paid quarterly into an escrow account, which protects the buyer's interests. The developer receives money only as construction stages are completed. The buyer does not transfer money directly to the developer — it is “frozen” until conditions are met.
Buyer protection: the developer is required to deposit their own deposit into a state fund before construction begins. In the case of an unfinished project, the state does not return either the developer's deposit or the buyers' money. “Therefore, all initiated projects are completed 100%,” says Takyrbashev.
Comparison: in Kyrgyzstan, the escrow account system has not yet been implemented, and cases of unfinished construction with loss of funds for investors are not uncommon.
Should Kyrgyz citizens invest in Dubai?
Expert opinions are divided.
Skeptical approach:
Elena Ganonova, a real estate expert, believes: “The average annual growth of investments in Dubai's real estate is 4%, while in Bishkek it can reach 7%. I see no point in investing in Dubai — neither under current conditions nor overall. Entry into the market is complicated, with many non-obvious conditions, and those who have exited with a profit are actually very few.”
In other words, buying an apartment in Bishkek may yield greater profit than similar investments in Dubai, with lower risks and investments.
Positive view (with caveats):
Eliza Abdieva highlights three main reasons why people buy real estate in the Gulf: safety (in peacetime), absence of annual property tax, and rental income. However, she insists on the need to develop the domestic market: “We need to attract foreign investors by providing guarantees in legislation: residency, discounts on education and healthcare. With our nature and current stability, we could attract many foreign buyers.”
She cites Qatar as an example, where investments of $200,000 grant a residency visa with free healthcare, and from $1 million — permanent residency with free education for children. Such incentives, in her opinion, could also be implemented in Kyrgyzstan.
Main conclusions
- The Dubai real estate market is in a state of pause, but not crisis. Purchase prices remain stable, while rents are decreasing, especially in the short-term rental segment.
- The main risk of 2026 lies in the combination of regional uncertainty and a sharp increase in the supply of new housing.
- For Kyrgyz citizens, entry into the Dubai market remains high (minimum $100-150 thousand for the down payment), with non-obvious expenses and lower profitability than in Bishkek.
- Alternative view: instead of capital flight abroad, experts suggest developing the legislative framework to attract foreign buyers to the Kyrgyz real estate market, so that money comes into the country rather than leaving it.
