The situation in the Middle East, exacerbated by conflicts, may lead to the mass relocation of Iranians to Kazakhstan, which, as noted by Doctor of Geographical Sciences Sheripzhan Nadirov in an interview with the publication "Kursiv," will become inevitable if a protracted war begins. He pointed out that due to significant trade and economic ties, Kazakhstan will not be able to legally restrict migration from Iran.
According to Nadirov, the economy of Kazakhstan is capable of handling a flow of refugees numbering from 10,000 to 25,000 people without causing serious harm to the domestic market. However, exceeding this threshold could lead to an increase in anti-migrant sentiments and a shortage of places in educational institutions, which would negatively impact the financial situation of vulnerable groups in the population. The expert also highlighted that the route to Europe for Iranians is practically closed, which will result in the main flow of migrants heading through Azerbaijan and Pakistan, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will act as buffer countries on the route to Kazakhstan.
With the start of the military operation by the USA and Israel against Iran on February 28, global oil prices increased by 13%. During this time, Kazakh airlines began canceling flights to Dubai, Doha, and Medina, citing security threats in the region.
