According to the September 2025 forecasts, GDP was expected to grow by 6%. However, the bank now predicts an increase to 9%. In 2027, a growth rate of 7% is anticipated. Data from the National Statistical Committee shows that in 2025, the country's economy grew by 11.1%, which is 2.1% higher than the EBRD's September estimates.
“Kyrgyzstan became the fastest-growing economy in Central Asia in 2025. The main factors driving GDP growth were strong domestic demand and investments, which compensated for a sharp decline in exports. There was also significant activity in construction, which increased by 21.1% year-on-year, linked to investments in transport and energy infrastructure, as well as the mining sector,” the report states.
Industrial production also showed positive dynamics, increasing by 10.6% due to growth in the manufacturing and mining sectors. A high level of household consumption was supported by active lending, rising real wages, and significant remittances.
However, the EBRD notes that high consumer demand and rising utility tariffs have led to a resurgence of inflationary pressure, which amounted to 9.4% from January to December 2025. After several months of rising inflation in mid-2025, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan began tightening monetary policy, raising the key rate by 200 basis points to 11% by November 2025. Fiscal indicators remained high, and the budget showed a surplus due to rising revenues. The country's international reserves strengthened due to high gold prices, reaching $8.6 billion by the end of the year, creating a sufficient buffer against external shocks.
The EBRD forecasts that in the short term, the economy will continue to demonstrate stable growth. The recovery of exports and the implementation of large infrastructure projects are expected to contribute to investments, improve transport accessibility, and support growth in the coming years. At the same time, inflationary pressure poses risks for slowing growth rates,” the bank's experts add.
It is also worth noting that the Ministry of Economy of Kyrgyzstan expects the country's GDP to grow by 8.6% in 2026.
