The National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan has presented its forecasts for the volume of the shadow economy for 2024, which will amount to 308 billion soms. This includes hidden, informal, and illegal economic activities.
Compared to the previous year, the share of the shadow economy in the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3 percentage points, reaching 19.5%.
Analysis shows that in recent years there has been a growth in the shadow economy: in 2020 its volume was 128.9 billion soms, in 2023 it was 256.5 billion soms, and in 2024 it will increase to 308 billion soms.
However, it is worth noting that the share of the shadow economy in the GDP structure decreased from 4.5% to 3.8% compared to the previous year. At the same time, informal production activities in households increased from 14.7% in 2023 to 15.7% in 2024.
The most significant sectors of the shadow economy in 2024 are distributed as follows:
- wholesale and retail trade, including the repair of cars and motorcycles — 11.2% of GDP;
- manufacturing industry — 2.6%;
- construction — 1.7%;
- transport activities — 1.1%;
- activities of hotels and restaurants — 0.9%.
Calculations based on data from 2020–2024 have been carried out in accordance with the international standards of national accounts of 2008.
