Georgieva also noted that the International Monetary Fund has raised its forecasts for global economic growth: for 2026, it is now expected to be 3.3%, and for 2027 — 3.2%. These revised estimates return to levels that were projected in October, before the escalation of tariff conflicts. However, the current growth rates are still below the pre-pandemic average of 3.8%.
Georgieva highlighted four main factors contributing to the resilience of the global economy.
1. The Role of the Private Sector
In several countries, government structures have moved away from direct control over business, allowing the private sector to take a more active role. This has increased the flexibility and adaptability of businesses, positively impacting economic dynamics.
2. Trade Relations
Despite existing concerns and the introduction of tariff restrictions, there have been no significant trade barriers, and the impact of trade on economic growth has remained moderate. Most countries preferred not to resort to retaliatory measures and maintained the rules of international trade.
3. Artificial Intelligence
With responsible integration, AI could increase global GDP by nearly one percentage point, leading to enhanced productivity and the creation of new economic opportunities.
4. Economic Policies of Governments
The head of the IMF noted that governments are generally managing economic policy tasks successfully, providing support to both businesses and households.
Nevertheless, Georgieva pointed to declining productivity as a key structural constraint on growth, particularly in developed countries. In Europe, the potential of the single market has only been partially realized, and completing necessary structural reforms could significantly accelerate economic growth in the region.
Discussing the geopolitical situation, she emphasized that it has both positive and negative impacts on the global economy. In the context of ongoing conflicts, it is important to consider positive changes as well, such as the strengthening of regional cooperation and the emergence of new centers of economic growth in a multipolar world.
“Resilience cannot be taken for granted. It needs to be constantly supported, as ultimately it is about the well-being of people,” concluded the head of the IMF.
