The Social Fund's Budget Will Stabilize by 2028 — Forecast

Евгения Комарова Economy
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- In the medium term, for the years 2027-2028, the budget of the Social Fund shows a positive trend: the growth of revenues and expenditures will lead to a decrease in their share of GDP, while the deficit will reach minimal values.

These conclusions are based on data presented in the appendix to the law on the budget of the Social Fund.

The legislative act was adopted on January 16, 2026.

Main indicators for 2027-2028

In 2027, it is expected that the revenues of the Social Fund will amount to 144.2 billion soms, and in 2028 — 150.5 billion soms. At the same time, the share of these revenues in GDP will decrease from 6% in 2027 to 5.4% in 2028, indicating a faster growth of the economy compared to social obligations.

In turn, the expenditures of the Social Fund will amount to 144.1 billion soms in 2027 and 150.4 billion soms in 2028, also decreasing to 5.4% of GDP by the end of the planning period.

If in 2026 the budget deficit of the Social Fund is projected at 388.1 million soms, then in 2027 it will decrease to 132.1 million soms, and in 2028 — to 82.5 million soms.

The main burden still lies on the Pension Fund:


The Mandatory Health Insurance Fund will increase its expenditures from 69.1 billion to 74.7 billion soms in 2027-2028, reflecting the growth of healthcare costs.

The budget of the Social Fund of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2026 and the planning period of 2027-2028
Name2024 (actual, thousand soms)2025 (revised budget, thousand soms)2026 (draft, thousand soms)2027 (planning period, thousand soms)2028 (planning period, thousand soms)
Total revenues115,241,601.7129,183,671.5137,691,504.7144,185,180.7150,455,214.8
As % of GDP7.67.36.76.05.4
Including:
Pension Fund104,551,388.2115,864,648.8122,964,445.1128,319,003132,839,684.9
State Accumulation Pension Fund4,782,375.36,333,471.67,214,542.27,875,059.78,987,614.6
Mandatory Health Insurance Fund5,248,941.06,043,157.66,503,418.26,911,898.57,472,258.3
Workers' Health Improvement Fund658,897.2942,393.51,009,099.21,079,219.51,155,657.0
Total expenditures108,063,384.3127,708,873.9137,303,365.2144,053,124.6150,372,697.6
As % of GDP7.17.26.66.05.4
Including:
Pension Fund97,591,406.9114,087,000.9122,576,305.6128,186,946.9132,757,167.7
State Accumulation Pension Fund4,782,375.36,333,471.67,214,542.27,875,059.78,987,614.6
Mandatory Health Insurance Fund5,045,9516,304,2356,503,418.26,911,898.57,472,258.3
Workers' Health Improvement Fund643,651.1984,166.41,009,099.21,079,219.51,155,657
Surplus/Deficit7,178,217.41,474,797.6388,139.5132,056.182,517.2
GDP1,523,235,8001,779,721,2002,067,019,1002,398,447,3002,779,309,100
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