The EFSR forecasts indicate that from 2026 to 2028, the average budget surplus will amount to 1.3% of GDP. This is linked to high non-tax revenues and a gradual decline in tax revenues.
Analysts associate the decrease in tax revenues with the deterioration of the external economic situation, which will affect VAT on imports, customs duties, and revenues from gold mining.
In their opinion, the budget deficit, adjusted for "below the line" expenditures, will average 3.6% of GDP in 2026-2028, decreasing from an expected peak of 9.6% of GDP in 2025.
The authors of the forecast note that the main sources of financing the deficit will be domestic and external borrowings, as well as the use of Government deposits.
Note:
Below the line financing covers the accounting and financing of rare or extraordinary revenues and expenditures that do not relate to the core activities of the state or company. This data is displayed after the results of regular operational activities in the reporting, allowing for a more accurate assessment of financial results.
