According to the World Bank, in its January report "Global Economic Prospects," the organization predicts that by 2026, Kyrgyzstan, along with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, will be one of the three countries with the highest GDP growth rates among 22 developing economies in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region.
Central Asia continues to be the subregion with the most pronounced economic growth rates in the ECA. In 2025, the total GDP of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan is expected to increase by 6.2%, but in 2026, this figure is anticipated to decline to 5%.
The reasons for the slowdown in growth include weakened private consumption due to high inflation levels, as well as the expected slowdown of the Russian economy, which may negatively impact the export volumes of Central Asian countries. Additional influence will come from the tightening of migration policies in Russia, which may lead to a decrease in remittance flows to the region.
Among the additional threats to economic growth in the ECA are frequent and intense extreme weather conditions, such as drought and heat. These factors continue to have a negative impact on agricultural production, water resources, and infrastructure, especially in Central Asia.
At the same time, deepening regional integration and new international agreements may have a positive impact on trade development and economic growth. In particular, the report mentions the signing of a joint declaration on strategic partnership between the European Union and Central Asia in April 2025 in Samarkand, as well as a joint statement on economic cooperation between the USA and Central Asian countries, which will be signed in November 2025 in Washington.
