UN forecasts inflation to decrease to 3.1% and moderate global economic growth at 2.7% in 2026

- By the end of 2025, the global inflation rate was 3.4%, and the economy demonstrated its resilience, as stated at a briefing by Shantanu Mukherjee, Director of the Economic Analysis and Policy Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

He noted that the easing of monetary policy and the improvement of cross-border financial flows have become important factors contributing to the stabilization of the global economy.

“We expect that economic growth this year will remain at 2.7%, slightly below 2.8% in 2025. Inflation, in turn, will decrease to 3.1%,” said the UN representative.

It should be noted that developing countries are experiencing growth in GDP per capita, although the pace of this growth is slowing: in the last reporting period, the figure was 3.3%, significantly lower than the 4.3% seen in the early 2000s.

“Before the pandemic, wage growth generally matched the level of inflation; however, after 2020, wages began to grow more slowly than prices,” Mukherjee added.

According to UN forecasts, the global economy in 2026 will follow a stable but cautious trajectory, despite the shocks in trade experienced last year.

In developed countries, moderate growth of 1.6% is predicted, supported by increased consumer demand and lower interest rates. In developing regions, the situation is more complex: growth in Africa is expected to reach 4%, while East Asia will slow to 4.4% considering the reduced growth rate in China to 4.6%. South Asia will continue to be a dynamic region with a growth rate of 5.6%, while in Western Asia, the pace will increase to 4.1%.